Last month I used the title of a Sergio Leone spaghetti western to characterize the Toronto and Region residential resale market: The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly. April can also be characterized using a Leone film, but this month we have moved to a market that is mysterious, moody, and subject to treachery – Once Upon A Time in The West.
The overall movement of the Toronto and Region resale housing market is positive, in a smoldering way, with a number of mysterious components that may be a reflection of how the resale market is restructuring following the Covid-19 pandemic.
Very positively, the number of reported sales continued its upward trajectory, closing the gap between the number of reported sales reported during the first four months in 2025 and the first four months of this year. During this period in 2025, 18,458 properties were reported sold.
As at the end of this April, 17,862 homes changed hands, 3.2 percent fewer than last year. Last year, only 62,330 properties were reported sold for the entire Toronto and Region marketplace, a shockingly low number, reminiscent of sales taking place in the 1990’s. The current pace of 2026 sales would result in 60,300 sales by year’s end, however if the monthly improvement in sales achieved in March and April continues, we will not only equal but exceed 2025 total sales. Not a great achievement, but a much-needed achievement, nonetheless.
Mysteriously, the inventory paradox once again pervaded the resale market in April. Only 17,097 new properties came to market, almost 10 percent fewer than the same month last year. This was the forth consecutive month that listings declined (year-over-year). Paradoxically, these declines in new inventory coming to market are happening during a period when historically the market is flooded with new inventory. The market is clearly in the “wait-and-see” doldrums. With the war in the Middle East, dramatically increasing oil prices, and an uncertain economy, sellers are not coming to the spring market as they have in the past, leaving buyers with fewer choices, particularly in some sectors, such as semi-detached properties.
Although the overall inventory of 25,110 properties is by historical standards high for the month of April that number is deceptive in that at least 30 percent of those properties are not new listings, but properties that have been on the market on numerous occasions and have failed to sell. They reappear most often with price reductions.
The sales that are taking place are happening, counter-intuitively, at strong prices. Early forecasts for 2026 pointed to an average sale price falling below $1,000,000. That is not happening. Although the average sale price started weakly, it has been strengthening as the year has progressed. For the entire Toronto and Region, the average sale price came in at $1,051,969, only 4.9% percent less than it was last year at this time. This average sale price was based on 5,946 reported sales. Condominium apartment sales represented more than 25 percent of those sales (1,553). The combined average sale price for condominium apartment sales in the City of Toronto and the 905 Region was only $635,653. The average sale price for detached properties came in at $1,372,688, for semi-detached it was $1,033,469, and for townhouses it came in at $839,509. The average price for these housing types was substantially higher in the City of Toronto.
In April, the 905 Region’s market was not in lockstep with the City of Toronto. On a non-weighted basis, overall sales in the City of Toronto increased by almost 7 percent, but by only 3 percent in the 905 Region. Similarly average sale prices in the City of Toronto decreased by 3.1 percent and by 8 percent in the 905 Region. This disparity between the two marketplaces continues to reflect post-pandemic change. The diaspora out of the dense and perceptually more unsafe City of Toronto appears to be reversing, even though housing costs in the City of Toronto are substantially higher. The cost of automobility transportation and new work patterns are no doubt contributing to this market shift.
A very positive development in April was the City of Toronto’s resale condominium market. In April 1,054 condominium apartments were reported sold, an eye-popping 14.4 percent more than during the same period last year. This change first appeared (modestly) in March and has accelerated in April.
No doubt the decline in the average sale price, coming in at only $665,507 in April, made available condominium apartments attractive in these uncertain, unaffordable times.
There is little doubt that the Toronto and Region residential resale market is poised for growth. Demand is present, but not always being exercised. On April 29th, the Bank of Canada kept its benchmark rate at 2.25 percent, the fourth consecutive Bank meeting with no change, hopefully providing borrowers with much-needed certainty. All that remains is for the American-Iranian conflict to come peacefully and diplomatically to an end. The risk of inflation will end, some geopolitical stability will prevail, and both buyers and sellers will move away from the wait-and-see fence they have been sitting on and finally allow the spaghetti western film that the residential resale market has been struggling through to come to an end. The Sound of Music anyone?
